New Delhi: Delhi’s Municipal Corporation bypolls across 12 wards have concluded with a final voter turnout of 38.51%, a moderate figure by by-election standards but politically significant for all three key players — BJP, AAP and Congress.
While the official results will be declared later, ground feedback, past voting patterns and today’s turnout trends suggest that the BJP is currently seen to have the edge in a majority of wards, with AAP fighting to retain pockets of influence and Congress eyeing a comeback in at least one seat.
Overall Voting Pattern: 38.51% Turnout in 12 Wards
According to the latest figures, 38.51% of the electorate cast their vote in these 12 wards. For a civic bypoll in Delhi — where turnout traditionally remains low — this is being viewed as an average but politically meaningful participation level.
The contest was particularly crucial for:
- BJP, which wants to consolidate its comeback narrative after the Lok Sabha sweep,
- AAP, which is battling anti-incumbency at the municipal and state level, and
- Congress, which has little to lose but everything to gain in terms of vote share and morale.
In most wards, the main fight is between BJP and AAP, with Congress or strong independents turning some contests into triangular or personality-driven battles.
Chandni Mahal: Highest Turnout, Maximum Heat
The hottest seat of this bypoll is Chandni Mahal, which also recorded one of the highest turnouts — around 42% by 3:30 pm, later contributing to the final 38.51% average.
- Here, the fight is not BJP vs AAP, but AAP vs Shoaib Iqbal (independent), with Congress playing spoiler.
- AAP faces internal rebellion and a split in its traditional vote base.
- Iqbal’s camp has successfully pushed the narrative of “Shoaib vs All”, aiming to convert public sympathy and his long-standing local clout into votes.
Ground feedback and today’s voting mood suggest that Shoaib Iqbal appears to have a visible edge, though Congress’ vote-splitting role will be crucial.
Shalimar Bagh: CM’s Home Turf, Advantage BJP
In Shalimar Bagh, the ward associated with Chief Minister Rekha Gupta’s political turf, turnout hovered below the city average, but:
- BJP had won here in 2022 by roughly 8,000 votes even during the AAP wave in the MCD,
- The seat is seen as symbolic — a loss here would send a negative message for the BJP.
Given the previous margin, the chief minister factor and relatively weak AAP campaign here, analysts see BJP as strongly favoured to retain the ward with a comfortable margin.
Mundka, Dwarka-B, Dichau Kalan: Rural Belt, BJP Comfort Zone
In Mundka, turnout was around 38% by 3:30 pm, quite healthy for a rural-urban mixed ward.
- Both BJP and AAP candidates are Jat and from Mundka village, but
- AAP’s support base in the rural belt has eroded over recent years,
- BJP had won this ward comfortably in 2022 and now enjoys a “triple-engine” advantage (Centre, Delhi MPs, MCD).
A similar template plays out in Dichau Kalan and Dwarka-B, where:
- BJP had earlier secured large victory margins,
- AAP ran a relatively low-key campaign,
- Congress remains largely non-existent.
In all three, BJP is seen as having a clear or strong edge, barring a major surprise.
Vinod Nagar & Naraina: Candidate Choices Hurt AAP
In Vinod Nagar, AAP’s choice of candidate has drawn criticism at the ground level due to allegations resurfacing from an old video, while BJP retains an organisational and perception advantage.
In Naraina, BJP had earlier won with a solid margin, and:
- AAP’s central face there had himself lost his own Assembly seat,
- Anti-incumbency against the new “Rekha government” is still not deep enough to flip the seat.
Here too, BJP appears slightly ahead, though local issues remain alive.
Sangam Vihar: Congress’ Best Chance to Break Through
Sangam Vihar is one of the few wards where Congress is being seen as a serious contender.
- In 2022, AAP won by a margin of just 389 votes,
- A strong independent had polled over 7,000 votes then and is now in the Congress camp,
- Both BJP and AAP face public fatigue over persistent issues like water and roads.
If Congress opens its account anywhere, Sangam Vihar is the most likely candidate, with a genuine triangular fight on the cards.
Ashok Vihar & Dakshin Puri: Slum Belt, Bulldozer Politics & AAP Revival
In Ashok Vihar, a low-profile ward that became high-voltage after last-minute resignations and bulldozer politics, AAP seems to have regained some of its traditional slum vote, especially among jhuggi–jhopdi residents angered by demolitions and unmet welfare promises.
With BJP’s previous victory margin just 156 votes, AAP appears to have a slight edge here, though the contest remains tight.
In Dakshin Puri, a historic AAP stronghold and slum-heavy ward:
- AAP had earlier won by over 6,000 votes,
- Bulldozer action and housing insecurity have reconsolidated the urban-poor vote behind AAP.
Here, the pattern of AAP’s dominance is likely to continue, and BJP’s long-standing failure to crack this ward may persist.
Chandni Chowk: Three-Cornered Fight, Slight Edge to BJP
In Chandni Chowk, AAP won narrowly in 2022 (about 1,216 votes), but this time:
- Congress has fielded a locally respected trader,
- BJP too has put up a candidate with a strong business-community connect,
- AAP faces anti-incumbency and a more fragmented urban vote.
Given the past margin and today’s feedback, BJP currently appears to have a slight advantage, with Congress cutting into AAP’s space.
Broad Projection (Based on Turnout & Ground Mood)
While final numbers will decide the story, today’s 38.51% turnout, ward-wise voting patterns and local feedback suggest:
- BJP: In pole position in a majority of wards (around 7–8)
- AAP: Likely to hold or gain in 2–3 wards, especially Dakshin Puri and possibly Ashok Vihar
- Congress: Has a realistic opening in Sangam Vihar, if its local face converts personal goodwill into votes
- Independent (Chandni Mahal): Shoaib Iqbal could emerge as a key upset winner
The final picture will become clear only when the votes are counted — but politically, these bypolls have already sent a strong signal on where the BJP, AAP and Congress currently stand in Delhi’s local power matrix.
